SpaceX IPO expectations heat up, HyperLiquid's SPCX contract rebound points to a $2.4 trillion valuation

The cryptocurrency derivative contract SPCX related to the SpaceX IPO has rebounded on the decentralized trading platform HyperLiquid, as market expectations for the debut performance of the aerospace company founded by Elon Musk have revived. Data shows that the trading price of the SPCX contract rose to about $176 to $183 on Friday, after dropping to around $153 earlier this week, significantly rebounding from the approximately $157 level when the market was focused on it on Wednesday. Currently, the open interest for this contract is about $216 million, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $150 million.

SPCX does not represent ownership of SpaceX stock, allocation rights, or company equity, but is a cash-settled derivative. However, since the IPO issuance price for SpaceX has been set at $135 per share, this contract is viewed by the market as an important reference for measuring investor expectations for the opening price on the first day of trading. Based on the current price of about $183, SPCX implies a premium of about 36% for SpaceX's first-day listing. Earlier in May, this contract rose to $216, corresponding to a premium of about 60% over the IPO price; while earlier this week, when it dropped to $157, market expectations for the premium narrowed to about 16%.

Meanwhile, other informal market signals also indicate a warming of investor expectations. Bloomberg reported that data from IG International's related derivatives shows that the market implies a valuation of SpaceX at about $2.4 trillion, which is over 35% higher than the approximately $1.77 trillion valuation corresponding to the IPO pricing. Additionally, Polymarket users currently assign about a 70% probability that SpaceX's closing market value on the first day will exceed $2 trillion. SPCX had previously accumulated a decline of about 30% over the past few weeks, reflecting traders' cautious outlook on SpaceX's listing performance; however, the recent rebound indicates that the market is recalibrating the potential high valuation premium that the SpaceX IPO may bring.